Founder’s Note: When it comes to commodities and cycles, Senior Analyst Jason Perz knows what he’s talking about.
He understands the data. And he processes it like nobody else I know.
Here’s Jason with some more value-adding perspective on what’s next in the commodity space. – JC
By Jason Perz
As Nietzsche wrote, “The secret of all great things is the creative tension of becoming.”
He believed anticipation wasn’t a flaw but the force that pulls us toward transformation.
In markets, anticipation works the same way.
Before every major trend shift, the data begins to tighten, coil, and hum – long before the breakout itself.
You feel the move coming before you can fully explain it. The charts whisper the future before the headlines confirm it.
Right now, that’s exactly what’s happening in commodities and energy.
The Dollar Fading Changes the Entire Landscape
Let’s start with the U.S. Dollar Index:
We’ve been watching the 101 level for months. The dollar continues to fail at the underside of this major resistance zone.
Every rally attempt stalls. Every bounce gets sold.
This matters because a weakening dollar is the oxygen that fuels global risk-taking – especially in commodities.
When the dollar softens, capital flows into real assets, emerging markets, metals, and energy. It’s the macro ignition switch.
And it’s already happening.
Commodity Stocks Are Leading the World
Look at year-to-date returns for the commodity sector:
Gold miners, uranium, steel, copper, lithium… they’re not just outperforming.
They’re dominating.
The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) is up 140%. The Global X Uranium ETF (URA) is up nearly 84%.
The SPDR S&P Metals and Mining ETF (XME), the Global X Copper Miners ETF (COPX), and the VanEck Steel ETF (SLX) are all up between 74% and 78%.
This is what leadership looks like. This is a regime shift in real time.
While the S&P 500 sits at plus 17%, commodities are screaming that the global market structure has already changed.
The performance dispersion is too extreme to ignore. Money is rotating. The cycle is turning.
Nietzsche said, “Become who you are by learning to see.”
Price is that sight.
These charts are showing us what the market is becoming before the breakout becomes obvious.
The Anticipation Before the Breakout: Energy Is Next
Now look at the Energy Select SPDR Fund (XLE):
This is one of the largest, cleanest bases in the entire market.
Two years of sideways consolidation… volatility compressed… sellers exhausted… resistance tested over and over.
This is exactly what the poetics of becoming look like in a chart: a long, coiled anticipation of something that does not exist yet – but wants to.
Every major energy move in history started this way:
- a fading dollar;
- commodity leadership;
- improving risk appetite;
- and a sector that spends years preparing for the next leg higher.
XLE hasn’t broken out yet. But everything around it already has.
It’s the last domino.
The Market Is Becoming Before Our Eyes
When Nietzsche talked about becoming, he wasn’t describing a moment. He was describing a process, the tension before the transformation.
That’s the moment we’re in.
The dollar is weakening at a critical zone. Commodity stocks are already in full bull-mode.
And energy is pressing against the final ceiling of a multi-year base.
This is anticipation as transformation, the market stretching toward what it is becoming next.
Breakout or not, the message is clear: This cycle is shifting toward real assets, hard assets, and energy.
The move has already begun.
The breakout is simply the part everyone notices.
Save the bees,
Jason Perz
Senior Analyst, TrendLabs