Founder’s Note: Sam Gatlin’s overseas adventures continue.
Last week, from his base in Greece Sam traveled to Dubai for the 2025 CMT Global Investment Summit.
And he ran into (and partied with!) a living legend.
Here’s Sam with everything he learned during his most recent field trip. – JC
By Sam Gatlin
It was the 1970s – inflation was out of control, gas lines snaked for miles, and Wall Street had no idea what hit it.
The Dow Jones was stuck in a lost decade, flatlining through political scandals and energy shocks.
Nixon had just taken the U.S. off the gold standard, leaving the dollar to float for the first time in history.
Wall Street was confused, fearful, and desperate for something that worked.
And that’s when Ralph Acampora walked in with a stack of charts and a belief that price told the truth.
At the time, technical analysis was considered voodoo magic. The serious analysts read balance sheets and income statements. They didn’t draw lines on paper. Charting was for gamblers, not professionals.
But Ralph saw what others didn’t. He believed that markets were reflections of human emotion – fear, greed, and everything in between – and that those emotions left patterns.
He trusted those patterns more than the stories.
So in 1970, as the world obsessed over global turmoil, Ralph founded the Market Technicians Association – now the Chartered Market Technicians Association (CMT Association) – to legitimize technical analysis and elevate it into a real profession.
That decision changed Wall Street forever.
Ralph became Director of Technical Research at Prudential Securities and was one of the most followed strategists in the world.
He taught at the New York Institute of Finance, appeared on the major financial networks, and helped transform a fringe discipline into one of the most powerful frameworks in modern finance.
He turned charting into a language of truth – one that outlasted every inflation cycle, every rate regime, and every oil shock since.
From Wall Street to Dubai
Last week, I had the honor of meeting Ralph Acampora in person at the CMT Global Investment Summit in Dubai.
It was surreal for me to meet the man who not only pioneered the field I’ve built my career around, but who still radiates the same passion and curiosity that drove him in the 1970s.
We talked about how far technical analysis has come, and how the discipline that once lived in the shadows is now guiding billion-dollar investment decisions around the world.
Ralph shared stories from his early days, the skepticism he faced, and the joy he still gets from seeing new generations of technicians carrying the torch.
As JC learned from the godfather of technical analysis years ago, Ralph also told me, “Don’t fight Papa Dow.”
While I was in Dubai, Ralph celebrated his 85th birthday. Let me tell you, he can still party like he’s 21 years old.
What I Learned in Dubai
The Summit wasn’t just a reunion of technicians. It was a front-row seat to the current mood of global markets.
And one thing stood out loud and clear: Almost everyone is bearish on energy.
Multiple speakers shared why they think oil and gas are dead money.
Energy has lagged over the past few years, and sentiment has turned toxic.
But here’s the thing about extremes: they don’t last.
If you study positioning data, you’ll see why this matters.
Money managers are carrying their largest net short position in crude oil futures ever.
Historically, that group has been a phenomenal fade.
They were aggressively long before the 2020 crash, and now they’re record short as the price is sitting at a well-defined level of support.
Until proven otherwise, I believe the buyers will continue to step in and support the price at $60.
It’s not just crude that investors hate.
Energy stocks are one of the most heavily shorted areas of the market.
The short interest in the S&P 500 Energy Sector ETF (XLE) is the highest in years.
And yet, when you look at the price action, it doesn’t look bearish at all.
This looks like accumulation, not distribution. Still, short-sellers have built their largest position in years.
Zoom out and it gets even more interesting.
Since the COVID lows in 2020, Energy has been the best-performing sector in the S&P 500, up roughly 333% vs the index’s 192%.
The recent underperformance isn’t the end of the story. It’s a consolidation in the context of a long-term uptrend.
Energy has outperformed the S&P 500 by more than 140% since 2020.
Leadership takes breathers – it doesn’t vanish.
As Ralph taught JC, who then taught me, sector rotation is the lifeblood of a bull market.
Sooner, rather than later, I expect this bull market to rotate into energy.
Here’s the kicker: Energy is still the only sector below its Global Financial Crisis peak.
The catch-up potential is better than any other sector.
When XLE finally breaks above that 2008 ceiling, I expect it to unleash one of the strongest energy bull markets ever.
Look at this massive base. Does it look bearish to you?
I think the energy short sellers are wrong, and they will eventually be squeezed out of their positions.
At The Divergence, we’re already positioning for it.
We bought an oil and gas services stock earlier this week that’s breaking out to new all-time highs – one of the few in the sector doing so.
It’s heavily shorted, in a strong uptrend, and momentum is surging.
If Ralph Acampora taught us anything, it’s that markets reward those who respect price and ignore noise.
Fifty years ago, he fought to make technical analysis legitimate.
Today, we’re using that same framework to see what the crowd can’t – and to bet against their fear.
If we’re right, this next move in Energy won’t just be another rally – it’ll be history repeating itself, with everybody wrong again.
Stay sharp,
Sam Gatlin
Analyst, TrendLabs