Founder’s Note: Senior Analyst Jason Perz never lets us down.
Whether we’re exploring strange setups, getting punched in the face, and/or looking in the mirror, it’s going to be a great read… and we’re going to learn something… about the market and ourselves.
Here’s Jason with another lesson for trading and life. – JC
By Jason Perz
One of the first songs I learned on guitar was “Lithium” by Nirvana. My father was a great guitar player, and he would always give me songs that I liked and were easy to learn.
The opening line has always stuck with me: “I’m so happy ’cause today I found my friends, they’re in my head.”
That’s exactly what being a global futures trader feels like.
My “friends” are the signals, correlations, and cycles playing out across asset classes.
I’ll see something moving over in China, maybe in their stock market or agricultural market, and instantly my mind connects it to copper.
Then another “friend” inside my head fills in the why — liquidity shifts, global demand, or policy changes.
It might look chaotic from the outside, but for me, those “friends” fit together.
And the framework that keeps me grounded in all of it is the commodity cycle.
The Cycle: Meet My Friends
Take a look at the chart:
Gold starts the move. Gold is always the first one to show up. It’s the friend that doesn’t wait for the economy to confirm anything.
It anticipates liquidity shifts, inflation pressures, and policy pivots. When gold breaks out, it’s the signal that something bigger is coming.
Copper leads oil. Copper is the confirmation trade. It’s the “PhD in economics” metal, tied to construction, manufacturing, and infrastructure.
When copper rips, it tells you the real economy is catching up with what gold was signaling.
Oil moves last. Oil is reactive. It responds to liquidity, supply shocks, and lagging demand.
By the time oil makes its move, the others have already set the stage. It’s the closer, not the initiator.
So where does lithium fit?
Between Copper and Oil
Lithium has become one of the most important “friends in my head.”
This market surged more than 440% from the pandemic lows in March 2020.
After taking time to rest and build a base, the chart is now breaking out to a fresh 52-week high.
This kind of setup usually signals the start of another big move higher:
It doesn’t sniff out demand quite as early as copper, but it comes before oil in the cycle.
Lithium is the bridge commodity — connecting cyclical reflation with structural demand.
EVs, battery storage, data centers, renewable energy — these aren’t optional trends. They’re structural. Lithium demand doesn’t go away because the economy slows for a quarter.
When capital rotates back into lithium, it tells us that the forward-looking, technology-driven demand story is aligning with the cyclical reflation story that gold and copper already flagged.
That’s why lithium matters right now. It sits right between copper and oil, and it amplifies the cycle by anchoring it to the future.
From Chaos to Clarity
Being a trader is a lot like playing “Lithium” for the first time. You start with simple chords, some noise, and it feels rough. But then it locks into rhythm. Chaos turns into something that makes sense.
That’s what the commodity cycle does for me. Instead of staring at dozens of disconnected signals, I see the sequence:
- Gold starts…
- Copper confirms…
- Lithium bridges…
- Oil follows.
Those are my “friends in my head.”
Embracing the Noise
The brilliance of Cobain was making the messy sound honest. That’s what trading is about too.
The market never moves in a straight line, but if you listen long enough, you hear the pattern underneath the noise.
Gold tells us what’s coming. Copper confirms it. Lithium bridges the future. Oil, as always, moves last.
That’s the cycle. That’s the model.
And once you find those “friends,” you realize they’re always in your head — helping you put the pieces together.
Save the bees,
Jason Perz
Senior Analyst, TrendLabs