Founder’s Note: Sam Gatlin is back with another up-close and personal look at the energy market.
Things are starting to get tight for a lot of people who live and work in the real economy.
The reality is this kind of scenario also presents opportunities, if we’re prepared to exploit them. – JC
By Sam Gatlin
I love my new Ram Rebel.
I feel like a king driving that thing around Kansas, sitting up high, rumbling down the road, pretending I’m a much more useful man than I actually am.
Then I pull into the gas station and get humbled pretty fast.
That part sucks!
And I know I’m not alone…
Everybody’s feeling higher energy prices right now, whether they drive a truck, commute to work, run a farm, own a business, or just want to get through the week without watching another hundred-dollar bill disappear into a fuel tank.
That’s the reality of this market environment.
Energy prices are screaming higher, and most people aren’t in a position to avoid the pain.
You can tell someone to drive less, but that doesn’t help the guy hauling freight across the country, the farmer running equipment during harvest, or the family that lives twenty miles from work because that’s where they can afford a house.
The real world runs on energy.
And when energy prices rip, the pain spreads everywhere.
But markets aren’t just here to punish us…
They also give us ways to respond.
If fuel prices are going higher, somebody is benefiting.
Our job is to figure out who that is, and position ourselves with the winners instead of just complaining about the cost of filling up.
That’s what we do at Everybody’s Wrong.
Energy Is Exploding Higher
Start with the major energy contracts.
So far in 2026, heating oil is leading the charge, up a massive 138% year to date.
Meanwhile, gasoline is up 101%, while WTI crude oil is up 78%.
These are historic moves:
There are plenty of reasons for the move, but the main point is simple: Supply risk is elevated, geopolitical conflict remains a major tailwind, and refined product markets are extremely tight.
Heating oil and gasoline are outperforming crude, which tells us the real pressure is showing up in refined products.
And that matters because consumers don’t fill their tanks with crude oil.
Truckers don’t run their rigs on crude oil.
Airlines don’t fly planes with crude oil.
So if you’re someone who demands refined products, you’re in the house of pain.
Truckers Are Getting Hosed
Nobody feels this more directly than truckers.
Trucking is one of the most important industries in America, even though most people only notice it when something breaks.
If trucks stop moving, shelves empty, factories slow down, farms back up, and the entire supply chain starts to feel it.
Fuel is one of the largest operating costs in that business.
So when diesel prices explode, trucking companies get squeezed hard.
They can pass some of those costs along through fuel surcharges, but that doesn’t make the pain disappear, especially when demand softens or customers push back.
That’s exactly what our proprietary Trucker Index is starting to show:
After a strong rally earlier this year, our equal-weight basket of publicly traded trucking stocks carved out a textbook distribution pattern.
And now it’s breaking down.
That’s the market telling us higher energy prices are eating into margins, pressuring transportation companies, and creating real stress in one of the most important parts of the economy.
Refiners Are the Winners
Now let’s talk about the companies on the right side.
We use a proprietary ranking system to identify the strongest stocks in the market based on trend, relative strength, and momentum.
Over the past few months, one group has kept showing up near the top of the list.
Refiners.
These are the companies turning crude oil into gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and heating oil.
When refined product prices rise faster than crude oil, refiners can see their margins expand dramatically.
And that’s exactly what appears to be happening now:
Our Oil Refiners Index, an equal-weight basket of publicly traded refining stocks, is ripping to new all-time highs.
Refiners are benefiting from tight product markets, strong demand for gasoline and diesel, and a global energy backdrop that continues to reward companies with real assets and real capacity.
There’s another important caveat here as well…
The U.S. has recently moved to expand access to Venezuelan crude, and that matters because Venezuela produces some of the heaviest crude oil in the world.
Heavy crude takes more work to refine, but many North American refineries were built specifically to handle that kind of barrel.
And that gives our refining companies a HUGE advantage!
If these refiners can access discounted heavy crude while gasoline, diesel, and heating oil prices remain elevated, their profit margins can stay extremely strong.
That’s the kind of setup the market loves, and the price action confirms it.
And until something significant changes, I expect these names to remain market leaders.
Stay safe out there,
Sam Gatlin
Analyst, Everybody’s Wrong