Founder’s Note: Have I told you lately how much I love living vicariously through Sam Gatlin?
Sam’s just back from an extended stay overseas, he’s learned a lot, and he’s got more really good observations to share.
Here he is with non-random thoughts on Greece, the Middle East, American food, and precious metals… – JC
By Sam Gatlin
I’ve spent the past few months living out of a suitcase, drifting between Europe and the Middle East.
I’ve been eating meals that make me question why “American food” even exists.
And I’ve been meeting people who’ve shaped the way I think about markets.
Athens became home in a way I didn’t expect…
The islands were stunning, the pace of life melted the stress right off you, and the city itself feels like it has been teaching the world how to exist for thousands of years.
Dubai was another kind of overwhelming…
There were skyscrapers everywhere, the desert stretched out forever, and I met with some of the sharpest technicians alive, swapping charts over dinner until two in the morning.
And I finally met the Godfather of Technical Analysis, Ralph Acampora, which was a surreal moment for me.
But as much as I loved it, it felt good to come back to the United States this week.
First to Baltimore for our TrendLabs holiday party, where it doesn’t take long to remember why this team works so well.
And soon I’ll be on a plane to Kansas, where I’ll see my family, ride horses, feed fuzzy cows, probably end up on a dirt bike I shouldn’t be on, and maybe get talked into a little hunting.
Kansas has a way of grounding you, especially after months abroad.
Travel forces you to zoom out. Stepping away from the familiar strips out the noise.
When you’re standing on a rooftop in Athens watching the Acropolis glow at night, or drinking coffee in Dubai while traders debate the shape of yield curves and accumulation patterns, the little things vanish.
What matters stands out.
So this week, as I’ve been reflecting on the past few months, I’ve also been reflecting on the past year in markets.
And when I look back on 2025, one thing stands taller than everything else: taller than AI, taller than my Oklahoma City Thunder, taller than anything else.
This Has Been One of the Greatest Years for Precious Metals in Modern History…
And almost everybody has been on the wrong side of it.
Check the scoreboard:
- Junior Silver Miners are up almost 180%.
- Gold Explorers are up 180%.
- Junior Gold Miners are up close to 170%.
- Silver itself is up more than 110%.
- And Gold is up more than 60%.
These aren’t normal returns…
These are once-in-a-generation returns.
This is what secular leadership looks like.
And it happened while an astonishing number of investors were actively betting against it.
As the legendary market technician Charlie Munger said, “If people weren’t so often wrong, we wouldn’t be so rich.”
Nobody knows that better than the short sellers in precious metals this year.
And nowhere did they embarrass themselves more than in Silver.
The short interest in the iShares Silver ETF (SLV) hit its highest level ever in March, right before the price climbed out of a nearly 50-year base to new all-time highs.
You don’t get signals cleaner than that…
The last time Silver’s short interest spiked to record levels was in 2022, and that marked the low perfectly.
So now we have two historic signals, both wrong in the exact same direction.
The bears loaded up, and Silver went straight up.
Gold miners tell the same story:
The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) spent years building a massive accumulation pattern.
And right before the price broke out early this year, the short interest exploded to its highest level since 2018.
The market was saying “up,” and the short sellers were screaming “down.”
Guess who won.
Ever since then, GDX has been stair-stepping its way to new all-time highs, and the short interest hasn’t gone anywhere.
If anything, that stubbornness is fuel.
And then you have the VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ), the rowdiest part of the space, where the moves have been nothing short of escape velocity.
GDXJ entered a brand new parabolic uptrend back in late 2022, long before most investors cared.
Short interest spiked right alongside it, which is exactly what you want to see at the beginning of a secular advance.
After easing off a bit, the short interest surged again this spring, just as GDXJ was breaking out to fresh multi-year highs.
And since that second spike, the price has gone vertical.
GDXJ is up nearly 170% in 2025 alone.
It’s one of the strongest primary uptrends anywhere in the world.
This isn’t a coincidence…
This is the classic setup you get in the early stages of every major trend change: large, stubborn short interest refusing to recognize that the tide has turned.
Precious metals have been one of the most powerful stories of 2025, and the bears have spent the entire year fighting it tooth and nail, doubling down at every breakout, shorting strength, refusing to accept the evidence.
And that’s exactly why the moves have been so explosive.
Short sellers have been providing the fuel, one failed bet at a time.
Leadership doesn’t care about your valuation models, your narratives, or your preferences.
It goes where the strength is.
This year, the strength was in precious metals.
And the short sellers were dead wrong about it.
If these charts are any indication, the pain trade for the bears might only be getting started.
I’m here for it. Maybe I’ll change my title at TrendLabs to Chief Gold Bug.
Stay sharp,
Sam Gatlin
Analyst, TrendLabs