Founder’s Note: Jason Perz was spot-on with the question he asked at the top of his most recent submission for the Saturday morning EW.
“Is the market about to bottom right here?” he asked. The answer is not about “prediction.” It’s about “recognition.”
Here’s more from Jason about how to see the current market landscape… – JC
By Jason Perz
Everybody remembers the first two rules of Fight Club:
You do not talk about Fight Club.
You DO NOT talk about Fight Club.
But almost everybody forgets the one that actually matters:
Fights will go on as long as they have to.
That’s the rule nobody remembers.
And it’s the one that matters most right now.
This Isn’t Supposed to Be Clean
The situation in Iran feels confusing because people are trying to force it into a clean narrative.
One day it’s escalation, the next day it’s talk of peace, and then suddenly we’re right back to tension again. It feels inconsistent, almost random.
But that’s only true if you think this is supposed to resolve quickly. It’s not.
This region has been fought over for generations. In the 1800s, Britain was battling Persia over territory and influence.
Moving into the early 1900s, Russia and Britain applied pressure from both sides, never fully taking control because the other power would step in.
In 1907, they divided the country into spheres of influence, reducing autonomy without ever formally colonizing it. In 1941, Britain and the Soviets invaded and occupied Iran.
In 1953, Western powers intervened again through a coup that reshaped the government.
Different actors, different decades, same underlying dynamic: pressure, conflict, and control.
And through all of it, Iran was never fully absorbed. It remained independent, not because the pressure wasn’t there, but because the fight never truly ends. It just evolves.
What looks like peace is often just a pause. A regrouping. A shift in leverage before the next move.
Markets Work the Same Way
This is where it starts to matter for us. Markets behave in a similar way.
People are always trying to call the end of a move, trying to identify the exact moment a trend is over.
They want resolution. They want clarity.
But trends don’t operate on your timeline. They follow the same rule:
They go on as long as they have to.
Look at Energy
Pull up the chart of the S&P Energy Sector ETF (XLE) and remove the noise.
If you showed it to someone with no bias and asked whether it’s trending higher or lower, they’d answer correctly without hesitation.
It’s an uptrend.
Since breaking above that 50.50 level, the structure changed.
That was the line of polarity. Supply was absorbed, and the market transitioned into a new phase.
From there, price moved higher in a steady, persistent way:
Now we’ve had a couple of down weeks after 14 consecutive up weeks, and suddenly the narrative shifts.
People start asking if it’s over, if the move is done, if this was just another short-lived spike.
That’s how markets shake people out.
Volatility Is Part of the Process
Strong trends don’t move in straight lines. They can’t. They need to reset, to pull back, to create doubt. That’s what allows them to continue.
If you’re going to participate in moves like this, you have to accept the conditions that come with them.
There will be volatility. There will be conflicting headlines. There will be moments where it feels like the entire move is breaking down.
Most of the time, it’s not.
It’s just the market doing what it needs to do to keep the trend alive.
The Bottom Line
The situation in Iran isn’t going to resolve cleanly, and the energy trade isn’t going to end just because we’ve had a short-term pullback.
Both are operating under the same principle.
They will go on as long as they have to.
Your job isn’t to predict the exact end. It’s to recognize the trend while it’s in motion and stay positioned accordingly.
Expect volatility. Expect confusion. Expect moments where conviction gets tested.
That’s not the warning sign.
That’s the opportunity.
Save the bees,
Jason Perz
Senior Analyst, TrendLabs