Gold Futures hit new all-time highs this morning, continuing what’s been one of the strongest trades of 2025.
But before we talk about where Gold might go next, it’s worth understanding how we got here.
This year’s breakout might look sudden, but this isn’t some brand-new move that came out of nowhere. What we’re seeing now is really the continuation of a trend that’s been in place for years — half a decade, in fact.
A lot of investors seem to think Gold just “woke up” in 2025. It didn’t. The metal has been quietly outperforming global currencies for years, and this year’s surge is just the latest chapter in that story.
Remember, Gold isn’t just a commodity. It’s also a currency. And if you look at it through that lens, what’s happening now makes perfect sense.
Let me show you what I mean…
Fiat vs “Real Money”
In currency terms, fiat refers to money that’s declared legal tender by a government, rather than being backed by a physical asset like Gold or a digital one like Bitcoin.
Now, you guys know I’m not one of those conspiracy-theory types always ranting about “the end of fiat” as an excuse to buy this or sell that. That’s not me.
What I am is a trend follower. I believe in price — because asset prices trend.
Early in my career, I was lucky to be inspired by legends like Louise Yamada and John Roque — technicians who didn’t just look at stocks and other assets priced in dollars, but also in Gold.
Today, we’re flipping that around and pricing fiat currencies in real money: Gold.
Take the Euro, for example.
Here’s a chart of the Euro valued in Gold. Notice that key low in 2011 — right around when Gold prices peaked.
Since then, the Euro has been breaking down. It made new all-time lows versus Gold during COVID… and it’s been printing fresh lows ever since:
In other words, if the Euro is making new all-time lows priced in Gold, that means Gold has already been making new all-time highs priced in Euro — long before it broke out in U.S. dollars.
You can see the same thing in British Pounds — GBP broke down against Gold back in 2019 and has been making new all-time lows ever since:
The Australian Dollar? Same story. It also rolled over in 2019 and hasn’t looked back — five straight years of breaking down against Gold:
I could keep going, currency by currency, but you get the picture.
By 2024, nearly every major fiat currency on earth had already hit new all-time lows priced in Gold. The only holdouts were the Swiss Franc and the U.S. Dollar.
And, honestly, it was just a matter of time before those dominoes fell too.
Sure enough, the Swiss Franc broke to new all-time lows last year. And in 2025, the U.S. Dollar finally followed — collapsing to fresh record lows against Gold.
Here’s the chart of that breakdown — one of the worst years in modern history for the Greenback:
This isn’t some new phenomenon.
Sure, Gold’s hitting new all-time highs this year — but that’s only if you’re measuring it in U.S. dollars. And that’s the problem.
Investors who only think in dollars are just now waking up to a trend that’s been obvious everywhere else for years.
Across Europe, Asia, Latin America and beyond, fiat currencies have been bleeding value against real money for half a decade. The Dollar was simply the last one standing.
Now it’s cracking too.
So don’t let the headlines fool you — this isn’t the beginning of the move, or even the end. It’s the middle innings.
The world’s catching up to what Gold’s been telling us all along.
And if you think this ends here… you’re not paying attention.
Stay sharp,
JC Parets, CMT
Founder, TrendLabs