- The Wild Rotation of 2025
- Why energy and financial stocks are going higher.
- The coming dollar collapse–is here
It’s easy to see why people are feeling down.
The stocks they own are falling.
It really is that simple.
That’s why I focus on one of my favorite strategies:
Relative strength within the primary trend.
It’s what led us to buy energy and financial stocks early.
And it’s what insures we won’t miss the next big rotation – along with all the opportunities hiding in plain sight.
The Wild Rotation of 2025
The S&P 500 gained 24% in 2023 and another 23% in 2024.
So after a run lik that, a 4.5% drop in the first quarter of 2025 feels like a big deal.
But while US stocks took a breather, markets in China, Africa, Latin America, and Europe all posted double-digit gains from January through March.
If Antarctica had stocks, they’d probably be up too.
The bull market isn’t dead–it’s just moved elsewhere.
In fact, when we zoom in on the U.S., only two sectors were down last quarter:
Heading into the end of 2024, plenty of investors were sitting on huge gains from a handful of mega-cap U.S. tech stocks.
The vibes were so good, The Economist anointed America’s economy “the envy of the world.”
Meanwhile, U.S. Dollar Index Futures were breaking out to new highs:
To me, they looked too high. On December 31, I warned readers:
“A failed breakout here in the U.S. Dollar, right in the heart of whipsaw season, could be the catalyst for an epic collapse.”
Sure enough, the breakout failed. Traders started selling their Nvidia (NVDA) shares and rotating into other assets.
Then came the noise: Trump, tariffs, uncertainty.
Once the stampede starts, it’s hard to stop. A 10% correction in the U.S. stock market followed.
The “coming U.S. dollar collapse” I flagged on New Year’s Eve? It’s here.
But that money didn’t disappear. It rotated–into international equities, into commodities, into other risk assets.
We saw it happening. We knew what we were looking at.
And we moved.
What We’re Doing
“Relative strength within the primary trend” is simple. It works.
We’ve put it to work in three open positions: CME Group (CME), Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), and Expand Energy (EXE).
That’s two financial exchange operators and the largest independent natural gas producer in the U.S.
CME and EXE are both up from our entries–even in a “down” market.
I love it: this approach is doing exactly what I expected.
And we see more room to run in all three over the next three to six months.
We’ll spot the next rotation, too.
And yeah–that makes me happy.
Stay sharp,
JC Parets, CMT
Founder, TrendLabs