The whole point of this newsletter is to find opportunities where the story everybody’s telling doesn’t line up with what’s actually happening.
We literally called it Everybody’s Wrong because everybody is wrong somewhere, always.
Right now, the narrative around technology is falling apart, but the stocks aren’t. In fact, they’ve been doing the exact opposite, quietly making new highs while the headlines keep getting worse.
You can argue about AI, spending, or valuations all you want, but none of that is driving price. Buyers are. And they keep showing up.
If tech were really broken, it wouldn’t look like this.
Tech Stocks Hit New All-Time Highs
Yes, parts of technology have struggled over the past six months. That’s real.
But that’s not the whole story. Not even close.
The groups nobody wants to talk about, hardware and semiconductors, keep pressing to new highs.
Leadership hasn’t disappeared. It’s just rotated.
The S&P 500 Equal-Weight Technology ETF (RSPT) just closed yesterday at fresh all-time highs:
Not cap-weighted. Not driven by a handful of mega caps. This is broad participation. And it doesn’t stop there.
Mid-cap tech is making new all-time highs. Small-cap tech is making new all-time highs. The strength is showing up across the entire cap spectrum.
That’s not a broken sector. That’s a healthy one doing exactly what it’s supposed to do in a bull market.
If technology feels like a problem, it’s not because of tech.
It’s because of where you’ve been hiding.
First, Just Stop Falling
Before stocks can start to go up, they need to stop going down. This is simple. It might sound obvious. But so many investors ignore it.
Right now, that’s the only thing that matters for software.
After months of getting crushed, we may have just seen the first real sign of that process.
A failed breakdown. A quick move back above former support. That’s how turns begin:
If software holds above those February lows, the downtrend is no longer in control. The pressure shifts. The burden of proof flips to the upside.
Meanwhile, the rest of technology is already at all-time highs across every timeframe and every cap size. That’s happening with software acting like an anchor.
So what happens if that anchor stops dragging?
You don’t need a full recovery. You don’t even need leadership. You just need it to stop going down.
Because if it does anything more than that, if it even starts to participate, the move higher in tech and the broader market won’t be subtle.
It’ll be violent.
This is not a trend to fight.
This is where you lean in.
No one wants these stocks. That’s the point.
And I think everybody’s wrong.
Stay sharp,
JC Parets, CMT
Founder, TrendLabs