- New year, same global bull market.
- 2025 was a banner year for stocks as an asset class.
- We’ll follow the evidence wherever it leads in 2026.
2025 is officially in the books.
Whether it was a great year for you or a frustrating one doesn’t really matter anymore. The calendar has flipped. The scoreboard has been reset.
Onward.
But here’s the mistake people make every January: They assume a new year means a clean slate. In markets, that’s rarely true.
Asset prices don’t reset just because the calendar does. They trend.
And many of the most important trends shaping markets today – both in the United States and around the world – were already firmly in place long before January 1.
Yes, we’re starting fresh from a P&L perspective. Profits and losses go back to zero.
But the forces driving asset prices higher or lower don’t disappear overnight.
More often than not, the trends that defined last year are the same ones that carry forward into the next.
As we step into 2026, those trends are pointing to something worth paying attention to, because this hasn’t just been a strong market in the U.S.
It’s been a powerful, broad-based bull market for stocks globally.
Let’s take a look.
New All-Time Highs for Earth
At the very top of the new-highs list this month sits the All Country World Index (ACWI).
This is as broad as it gets. The index includes large- and mid-cap stocks across 23 developed markets and 24 emerging markets.
With more than 2,500 constituents, it represents roughly 85% of the global investable equity universe.
U.S. stocks still make up the largest share: just over 64% of the index.
But here’s the key point: When you strip the United States out entirely and look at the All Country World Index ex-U.S., you’ll find the same thing.
It just closed the month at the highest level in its history:
This isn’t just a U.S.-driven story.
Whether you include America or remove it altogether, global equities are trending decisively higher.
In fact, this marks five consecutive months in which both the ACWI and the ACWI ex-U.S. have closed at all-time highs simultaneously.
That’s not noise. That’s a global trend.
Great Year for Stocks
As strong as U.S. equities were in 2025, they still managed to underperform much of the world.
This wasn’t just a good year for American stocks. It was a great year for stocks as an asset class.
The S&P 500 (SPY) finished the year up 17.7%, on a total return basis. The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) gained 20.7%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) returned 14.7%.
On their own, those are excellent results.
But once you zoom out and look globally, they look far less exceptional.
Latin America (ILF) surged 52.6% in 2025. Europe (FEZ) gained 37.8%. Asia (AIA) rose 47.7%. Africa (AFK) led the way, up an eye-popping 74.7%.
And when you drill down country by country – which I strongly encourage – you’ll find even bigger winners. Peru finished the year up 86.8%. Poland rallied 77.3%.
This was a global equity boom.
The Trend for the United States Is Up
With all that strength overseas, it’s easy to lose sight of just how strong the U.S. market really was.
The United States still delivered a banner year.
And it’s worth remembering that it’s far harder to move the needle in the largest equity market on Earth than it is in smaller, more concentrated markets across Latin America or Africa.
These are the biggest companies in the world. And they still performed.
Technology (XLK) rallied 24.6% in 2025. Communication Services (XLC) gained 23%. Industrials (XLI) returned 19.3%, while Financials (XLF) rose 14.9%.
Those are strong, healthy returns from the most important sectors in the market.
Meanwhile, Consumer Staples (XLP) lagged and finished the year with the weakest performance, up only 1.5%, exactly what you’d expect to see in a healthy, risk-on bull market.
So What’s Next?
The most important thing to remember is simple: Asset prices trend.
When we talk about stocks, our job isn’t to predict every wiggle or react to every headline.
It’s to stay on the right side of those trends, not to fight them.
Will there be ups and downs in 2026? Of course. There always is. Pullbacks, rotations, and shakeouts are part of the process.
Until the evidence changes, the benefit of the doubt belongs to the prevailing trend.
That means continuing to watch for any real deterioration beneath the surface, both in the U.S. and overseas.
Because this hasn’t been a one-country story. It’s been a global bull market for equities.
When that eventually changes, it likely won’t be subtle. Weakness will show up across regions, not just in one corner of the world.
Until then, our job is straightforward: Stay alert, stay flexible, and stay aligned with the trend.
Because trends pay. Opinions don’t.
Happy New Year! And here’s to another year of following the evidence wherever it leads.
Stay sharp,
JC Parets, CMT
Founder, TrendLabs