Founder’s Note: Something else I love about Quantitative Analyst Grant Hawkridge is that he’s always looking to get better.
The data part is great; we couldn’t do what we do at TrendLabs without him.
And curiosity is the key to all of it… – JC
By Grant Hawkridge
G’day, Grant here again.
When I lived in Moscow, I spent my days trading stocks and my nights trying to keep myself busy.
The rhythm was slow, and I had long gaps between sessions, so I decided to study something that might sharpen the way I looked at the market.
So, I enrolled in a Master of Finance course through Griffith University in Queensland, since they offered an online option that worked with my schedule while I lived in Russia.
One of the subjects was Econometric Methods. I had no idea what I would get out of it, but it ended up being statistical models, hypothesis testing, and mathematical ways to break down data and test ideas.
I did not expect to enjoy it as much as I did. The logic made sense, the work came naturally, and the subject clicked for me in a way that felt similar to reading a clean price trend.
I finished the course with the highest grade, and my lecturer later confirmed I was the top student in the class.
That subject shaped how I think. It pushed me deeper into data and taught me to question what I think I see on a chart. Price always comes first, but the data behind the price gives me the confidence to put risk on, follow the trend, and ignore the noise.
That same mindset shows up in everything I do at TrendLabs today.
And that same thinking kicks in here, because the Zweig Breadth Thrust has my eye right now. The setup is building again, and the data is moving into a zone that matters.
A New Clock Is Running on the Zweig Breadth Thrust
The Zweig Breadth Thrust measures how many NYSE stocks are advancing compared to how many are declining, and it smooths that ratio with a 10-Day Exponential Moving Average so you see the real shift in demand, not a one-day spike.
When that smoothed ratio climbs from below 0.40 to above 0.615 inside 10 trading days, you get a confirmed thrust.
That move tells you buyers did not just show up for a day or two. It tells you they stepped into the tape with size and speed across the entire market, and they did it fast enough to flip the whole breadth picture in less than two weeks.
It does not fire often. When it does, it signals a powerful shift in participation, because buyers rush into the market across hundreds of names at the same time.
We now have six trading days left for this thrust to trigger:
The ratio dropped below 0.40 on November 20 and recovered above 0.40 on November 21, which restarted the clock.
If it pushes above 0.615 by December 5, we will get a confirmed thrust.
Why a Thrust Matters in a Bull Market
This signal matters because bull markets run on participation.
You want to see buyers step into the tape with speed and size. You want to see breadth open up. You want to see strength across many areas, not just a few.
A thrust is one of the clearest signs that the market is moving that way.
The forward return data backs that up in a way that fits perfectly with the tools I learned in that econometrics course years ago:
When you test the 12-month outcomes that follow a thrust, the results stack tightly on one side of the distribution. The S&P 500 has gained about 20.3% on average over the next year, and more than 94% of those periods finished positive.
That kind of consistency is rare, and it reflects the power of a strong participation surge. It comes from a market where buyers stay in control and keep pressing for months at a time.
The environment around a thrust is almost always the same.
Momentum is strong.
Participation is widening.
Risk appetite tilts toward offense.
Sellers lose control of the tape.
Buyers push hard and often do not stop for a while.
Right now, we are watching the early stages of that type of window.
We have the pullback that reset the clock. We have the snap back above 0.40. We now have six days left to hit the trigger.
Whether the thrust fires or not, the setup deserves attention because this is the kind of environment where the tape can move faster than most traders expect.
The charts will tell the rest of the story.
The data will confirm whether the thrust triggers.
And if it does, we will be ready for it.
Happy hitting,
Grant Hawkridge
Quantitative Analyst, TrendLabs