I’ve noticed over the years that people love to slap labels on me depending on where we are in the market cycle.
In bull markets, when stocks are trending higher, I’m often called a permabull – that’s short for “permanent bull.”
It’s attached to investors and/or analysts who are seen as permanently optimistic, always expecting higher prices no matter what the evidence shows.
In reality, those folks usually end up as bag-holders when the inevitable drawdowns come.
On the flip side, during bear markets, I suddenly become a permabear – that’s short for “permanent bear.”
This one’s stuck on people who are permanently pessimistic, always convinced stocks are going lower, regardless of the data in front of them.
The irony, of course, is that I’m neither permanent bull nor permanent bear.
I don’t marry a bias. I follow the data, the price action, and the trends.
That’s the job.
My Permabear Days
Back in late 2007, heading into 2008, I was branded the permabear of the office.
Colleagues would literally shut their doors when I walked by because they didn’t want to hear my “gloom and doom.”
The truth is I wasn’t being a permabear at all. I was simply following the trend.
The irony? They were being permabulls. They just couldn’t see it.
The same thing happened in 2015. I was convinced we were entering a deeply bearish period, and I said so every day. Naturally, the permabear label came out again.
Fast-forward to 2021 and 2022. When most investors thought we were in a raging bull market, I kept pointing out the opposite.
Once again, people didn’t like it. And, once again, I got slapped with the permabear tag.
The lesson is simple: When markets are falling and investors don’t want to face it, their coping mechanism is to dismiss anyone who disagrees with them and throw labels around.
It’s easier for them to call someone a permabear than to confront the reality of the trend.
My Permabull Days
I remember vividly in late 2016 and into 2017 being labeled a permabull.
Why? Because I wasn’t foaming at the mouth like half the country after Donald Trump beat Hillary Clinton.
At the time, I was living in Northern California – ground zero for political outrage. People were raising cash, dumping stocks, and acting like the market was about to collapse.
And me? Apparently, I was just a “permabull who couldn’t see the crash coming.”
Funny thing is, 2017 ended up being one of the best years ever for U.S. stocks – and the least volatile year in American history. Turns out I wasn’t a permabull at all. Those folks were just angry.
The same thing happened again in late 2022. Economists and Wall Street analysts were out in force, warning of an “imminent recession.” Everyone bought into the “doom” narrative.
Meanwhile, I was screaming from the rooftops to buy stocks aggressively. Naturally, the newcomers decided that made me a permabull.
But, just like in 2017, I wasn’t being permanently bullish. I was simply following the trends.
That’s the job. That’s what we do.
Fast-Forward To Today
These days, I get labeled a permabull pretty regularly – lumped in with analysts who are actually permanently bullish no matter what.
But here’s the thing: Anyone calling me a permabull is clearly new to my work. If they only knew how many times I’ve been accused of being a permabear over the years, their heads would explode!
This is classic behavior from the uninformed.
During healthy bull markets, people don’t want to admit they missed it, so they cope by calling anyone who’s stayed long a permabull.
But I don’t play that game. When the offense is on the field, I call offensive plays. That’s all I’m doing now. And it’s been making a lot of money.
The loudest critics tend to fall into two camps:
- Those who missed the rally and are bitterly hoping it falls apart.
- Those who never had any capital to put to work in the first place, so staying angry is easier than admitting they’re not even in the game.
Either way, that’s not who you want to be. Don’t be like those folks.
Trend Following
Asset prices trend. That’s why Technical Analysis works, because as Technicians we spend a lot of our time looking for trends.
The labels people throw my way – “permabull” in bull markets, “permabear” in bear markets – aren’t really about me.
It reflects where we are in the cycle and how uncomfortable it makes others feel.
Funny thing, though: Nobody ever calls me a permabear when stocks are ripping higher.
And I’ve never been called a permabull when the market’s falling apart.
That tells you everything you need to know.
I’m not here to be perma-anything. I’m here to follow the trends.
And right now? The trend is still up.
Stay sharp,
JC Parets, CMT
Founder, TrendLabs