Remember, everybody’s wrong. Today, we’ll focus on how everybody’s wrong about valuations. I’m almost finished reading my friend Barry Ritholtz’ new book, “How Not To Invest.” Barry is the co-founder of the fastest-growing investment advisory firm in the country. He…
This daily e-letter is called “Everybody’s Wrong” for a good reason. We’re not here to waste our time with fundamentals and/or geopolitics. That stuff is too hard. It’s much easier to bet that humans will make irrational decisions. That’s way…
Here’s the thing about market sentiment: It’s hard to gauge. But we don’t have to pretend. We know. It’s quite obvious, however, that other people, with extreme insecurities, do actually have to pretend. And they’re embarrassing themselves. Technical Analysis, broadly…
A common question I get is about the turmoil in the Middle East. And not just this week. And not just this year. It’s every year. My entire career. When is there no turmoil in the Middle East? Isn’t this…
About five years ago I passed the Certified Sommelier Exam. It took about four years of training to get there. On my first day of Sommelier kindergarten, I realized right away these Master Sommeliers were Technical Analysts, just like me.…
There’s a lot about markets we simply don’t and can’t know, especially about the future. So what I like to do is to focus on the things that we do know. Asset prices trend. Momentum is a thing. And humans…
A lot’s changed since the beginning of the year. We came into 2025 looking for a decline in the U.S. Dollar. Positioning suggested this was the most likely outcome, with speculators betting very aggressively on a rising Dollar. Commercial hedgers…
When everyone is piling into the stock market chasing returns, that’s usually a sign things are getting frothy and we’re likely due for some type of correction. To be clear, that is NOT what is currently happening. Retail investors are…
As traders and investors of any time horizon, what we’re doing in the market is exploiting the flaws of human behavior. That’s the game we’re playing. This isn’t about corporate fundamentals. And it’s not about the growth or slowdown of…
Happy Father’s Day! My Dad flew up from Miami to hang out with my wife and me and the kids “down the shore” in beautiful Avalon, New Jersey. It’s a great place. Clean, quiet, good eats, nice people, kid-friendly. What…
Crude Oil and Energy stocks are ripping higher this week. In the news, they might tell you it’s because of a war somewhere, or some kind of turmoil in the Middle East. As usual, I think everybody’s wrong. Some kind…
We said it a month ago – and now we’re saying it louder. Bitcoin Dominance has likely peaked. The rotation has already started. That means “Altseason” is underway. This is when all the “alternative” Cryptocurrencies outperform the behemoth that is…
