Everybody’s Wrong

Mid-cap stocks broke out to all-time highs yesterday. That’s new. And it matters. We’ve spent plenty of time talking about large caps making record highs. The S&P 500 keeps doing what healthy bull markets do: pushing into uncharted territory. Small…

There’s a line that smart people love to repeat, usually without thinking very hard about it: “The problem with technical analysis is that it only looks at information from the past.” I’ve heard this for decades. And every time I…

Nobody likes energy stocks. And it’s not hard to see why. For most investors, energy has been a graveyard since the Great Financial Crisis. While other sectors delivered life-changing returns, energy quietly went nowhere.  On a total-return basis, the energy…

It’s funny. During every bull market, I inevitably get labeled a “permabull,” usually by people who spend their time fighting trends instead of participating in them. They want me to turn bearish while prices are going up, largely because they’ve…

Founder’s Note: One of the most important lessons I learned from one of my earliest mentors is to always be teaching. If you’ve been reading Everybody’s Wrong for a while, you’re familiar with Sam Gatlin. And you probably know he…

After three consecutive years of record-breaking gains for U.S. stocks, a lot of people have reached the same conclusion: A major bear market has to be next. I think everybody’s wrong. That’s not how markets actually work. We’ve already lived…

2025 is officially in the books. Whether it was a great year for you or a frustrating one doesn’t really matter anymore. The calendar has flipped. The scoreboard has been reset. Onward. But here’s the mistake people make every January:…

If this market really looked like 1999 or 2008, the evidence would already be obvious. It would show up in narrowing participation. Fewer stocks going up. More divergences beneath the surface. Leadership breaking down while the headlines stayed optimistic. That’s…