Maybe Try Basket Weaving

This is the game.

You can sit there and complain that insiders are trading ahead of a tweet. Ahead of an announcement. Ahead of whatever headline you didn’t see coming.

Or you can grow up. 

Because this isn’t anything new. It’s not rare. It’s definitely not going away. This is the game we play that isn’t always fair.

And it’s always been this way. If you believe otherwise, you haven’t been paying attention.

We know for a fact there is cheating, front-running, and all kinds of shenanigans happening every single day.

Not occasionally. Not just at the margins. Every day.

Big money figuring out how to distribute risk to someone else. Smart money selling to less-informed money.

That’s not a conspiracy theory. That’s the business model.

You think these massive IPOs and private deals are structured for your benefit? The whole point is to transfer risk.

Take something that insiders, early investors, or employees want to sell and find a way to package it up nice and pretty so someone else holds the bag. 

At the end of the day, it’s supply looking for a buyer. And, too often, that buyer is the person who thinks the market is fair.

It’s not fair. It never has been.

And if you can’t get over it, then the market isn’t for you.

The Lie People Tell Themselves

That’s the part nobody wants to admit.

People love the idea of markets being this clean, level playing field where everyone has equal access to information and opportunity.

It sounds great. It’s also completely disconnected from reality.

There are always going to be people who know more than you. There are always going to be people acting before you. And there will always be moves that don’t make sense until after the fact.

If that bothers you, you’re going to have a tough time here.

Because the second you start expecting fairness, you’ve already put yourself in a bad position.

You’re assuming the game is something it’s not. That’s how you end up on the wrong side of it.

Not because the game is rigged. But because you’re playing the wrong game in the first place.

The Self-Appointed Mall Cop

The problem isn’t that insider activity exists. The problem is thinking that’s where your edge is supposed to come from.

Sitting around trying to figure out who knew what and when is a losing game. You’re competing against people with better access, better information, and better resources.

Good luck with that.

Meanwhile, price already reflects all of it. Every whisper. Every leak. Every “guy who knows a guy.” It’s all showing up in the only thing that actually pays us.

Price.

So instead of playing detective, and pretending you’re this Wall Street hall monitor/mall cop, why not just follow the evidence

Trends exist because of this behavior, not in spite of it. The footprints are right there for anyone willing to look.

Don’t Be the Bagholder

The market doesn’t owe you fairness. It doesn’t care about your opinion, your feelings, or your timeline.

It’s a mechanism for transferring money from those who don’t know the market is rigged to those who do.

The people who survive are those who accept that reality quickly.

They don’t waste time complaining about the game. They learn how it’s played. More importantly, they learn how not to be the sucker on the other side of the trade.

That’s really what this comes down to.

You don’t have to outsmart insiders. You don’t have to know everything. You just have to avoid being the one they’re selling to at the wrong time.

That means respecting price. Respecting trends. Managing risk like it actually matters.

Because it does.

You can keep yelling about how “unfair” it all is. A lot of people do. You’ll find many of them on Twitter every day.

Or you can accept the rules, play your game, and make damn sure you’re not the one left holding the bag.

And if that ruins your day? The stock market is probably not for you.

Maybe try basket weaving.

Stay sharp,

JC Parets, CMT
Founder, TrendLabs