After 23 years in this business, if you learn anything at all, it’s this: Keep an open mind.
Not because it sounds good. Not because it’s philosophical. But because markets will embarrass anyone who thinks they have it all figured out.
Very few things truly surprise me anymore. I’ve seen major investment banks vanish overnight. I’ve seen crude oil trade below zero.
I’ve seen so-called five- and 10-sigma events happen often enough that you start questioning how “rare” they really are.
Markets are not perfectly efficient. They’re almost efficient. And that small gap between “almost” and “perfect” is where all the opportunity lives.
Pretty much anything can happen. And if we decide ahead of time that something can’t happen, we put ourselves at a disadvantage.
Being open minded doesn’t mean believing every story. It means respecting price. It means accepting that if something is happening, and the data confirms it, our job is not to argue. Our job is to respond.
That mindset is what brings me to bitcoin.
My First Bitcoin
I got my first bitcoin in 2013.
It was given to me. Let’s be clear about that. I’m not some blockchain pioneer or early cypherpunk. I’m a price guy.
What I do understand is trend.
If you give me data, I can tell you whether something is going up, down, or sideways. Back then, bitcoin was going up. That much was obvious.
What wasn’t obvious to me was $100,000 bitcoin.
At the time it was trading around $600. Six hundred. The idea that it would one day trade with five digits in front of it sounded insane.
But that was also a different version of me. I was running a startup hedge fund. Capital was limited. Experience was limited. My framework was narrower. Even if I believed it could go dramatically higher, my ability to act on that belief was constrained.
Since then, we’ve seen multiple boom-and-bust cycles. Vertical rallies. Brutal drawdowns. Euphoria. Panic.
And through all of it, one thing remained consistent: price left clues.
Bitcoin doesn’t have earnings. There’s no balance sheet. No income statement. If you need traditional fundamentals to participate, you’re going to struggle.
But we do have price. And price is the only thing that actually pays anyone.
Fast forward to today. More experience. More capital. A much wider perspective.
And, most importantly, a willingness to let the data, not my opinion, dictate positioning.
So what am I doing with that?
I’m buying bitcoin.
The Risk in Bitcoin Is Up
At the end of last week we got a fresh batch of monthly candlesticks.
For me, that’s the cheat code. Monthly candlesticks force you to zoom out and focus on primary trends instead of getting chopped up in the day-to-day noise.
When you step back and look at bitcoin on a monthly timeframe, the message is straightforward.
Former resistance continues to turn into support:
The same principles technicians were writing about 80 years ago still apply today, even to an asset that didn’t exist back then.
The highs from late 2017 marked a clear ceiling. That level was finally reclaimed and then successfully retested at the end of 2022.
What used to be an area with more sellers than buyers flipped. On the retest, demand showed up.
That’s how structural uptrends behave.
Now we’re dealing with a similar setup. The resistance from 2021 to 2022, and again in 2024, is being challenged.
The question is simple: Does that ceiling turn into a floor the same way 2017 did?
For me, the line in the sand is 66,000.
Above that level, I believe the answer is “yes.” And if that’s the case, the path of least resistance is higher.
Which brings us to the bigger picture.
Bitcoin: Just Another Risk Asset
Let’s call it what it is.
Bitcoin is not some magical hedge against inflation. It’s not a shield against governments. It’s not a secret weapon against central banks.
It’s just a risk asset.
If I had to categorize it, it trades like a tech stock. And if we want to get even more specific, it behaves a lot like a high-beta software name.
I know that’s blasphemy in certain corners of the internet. The “laser eyes” crowd, who let their religious beliefs influence their decision making, won’t like it.
But I don’t care what the narrative says. I care what the data says. If bitcoin wants to be treated differently, it needs to start acting differently.
Up until now, it’s moved with liquidity. It’s moved with risk appetite. When software stocks catch a bid, bitcoin catches a bid. When risk there gets sold, bitcoin gets hit.
That’s not ideology. That’s observation.
Right now, we’re betting bitcoin goes higher.
You won’t just hear me say that. You can see it. Our model portfolios for The Divergence and The Primary Trend are published in real time.
No mystery. No hiding. If we’re long, you’ll know it. If we’re wrong, you’ll see that, too.
There’s something powerful about that transparency. Trading is not supposed to be thrilling. If it feels exciting, you’re probably doing it wrong.
Good execution is boring. Discipline is repetitive. Process wins.
The fun part is not the adrenaline. The fun part is doing it together.
Watching levels hold. Watching breakouts resolve. Navigating risk in real time with a community that cares about getting it right.
Open mind. Clear level. Defined risk.
Above 66,000, the risk in bitcoin is up.
So we’re long.
Let’s see what happens.
Stay sharp,
JC Parets, CMT
Founder, TrendLabs