The Dollar Was Supposed To Wreck Everything. Oops.

We’re seeing the exact opposite of the “Dollar wrecking ball” narrative they’re always trying to scare you with.

And sure, the idea of the U.S. Dollar smashing everything in its path sounds terrifying. It makes for great headlines.

But the last time the scary journalists rolled that one out, the market did the exact opposite.

The Dollar has been getting hit, and instead of chaos, investors have been rewarded. Precious metals have been on a tear – every major precious metals index has more than doubled this year.

Stocks are printing historic numbers. And in 2025, the real leadership has been overseas, with international equities outperforming in a big way.

A weaker Dollar hasn’t been a wrecking ball at all. It’s been a massive tailwind.

Just don’t forget where we came from.

Let’s Go Back

It’s impossible to talk about a weakening U.S. Dollar without reminding people what they were being warned about back in October 2022 – right as the current bull market in stocks was getting started.

That’s when the financial media went into “full scare” mode.

These are the Businessweek and Barron’s covers from that moment:

Bloomberg Businessweek cover with colorful abstract shapes, 'Can't Stop Won't Stop' text; Barron's cover features muscular figure lifting a dollar bill, highlighting dollar strength.

Businessweek told readers the U.S. Dollar had become a “wrecking ball,” with no end in sight to the carnage.

Barron’s took a different approach, slapping George Washington on the cover – bursting out of a dollar bill in a tank top, flexing his biceps – to celebrate the “powerful greenback.”

Here’s the punchline:

Graph showing the US Dollar Index from 2019 to 2024. Highlights include peaks in October 2022, with magazine covers marked for October 3 and 10, and a high on September 27, 2022.

By the time those covers hit the newsstands, the Dollar had already peaked.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) made its high in the final week of September 2022. From there, it rolled over – and it’s been trending lower ever since.

Equity investors who laughed off these glorified gossip columns have been rewarded handsomely.

Looking at the chart today, the 100 level stands out clearly. It acted as support for years.

But once that level finally broke earlier this year, it flipped – support became resistance.

That’s classic market behavior. We call it “polarity.”

There’s now overhead supply at 100, and as long as the Dollar remains below it, the path of least resistance is still lower:

Line chart showing the US Dollar Index (DXY) from 2019 to 2026. Key points marked with arrows indicate support and resistance levels near 100.

If you own stocks – or plan to own more stocks – that’s a good thing.

You’ll still hear scary headlines about how a weaker Dollar is supposedly bad for investors (the opposite of what they told you three years ago).

But we know better. The evidence has been staring us in the face for years.

Unfortunately, some investors let those headlines get to them. They got so worked up about the Dollar, debt, inflation, or whatever the narrative du jour happened to be, that they chose to sit out the bull market altogether.

Think about that.

Boycotting one of the strongest equity bull markets of all time because of a magazine cover, a macro headline, or a made-up fear.

That’s real damage to a portfolio.

I can’t think of anything more tragic in markets than investors who listened to journalists instead of the price – and talked themselves out of participating in a historic run in stocks.

Price doesn’t argue, negotiate, or explain. It just keeps score.