We call this daily note Everybody’s Wrong because it certainly feels that way sometimes. The truth is the crowd is usually right through the duration of most trends. So when asset prices are trending but the crowd is wrong, it…
If your strategy only works in certain types of market environments, then it’s probably time for a new strategy. If you’re unable to adapt to changing market conditions, it’s only a matter of time before it’s all over for you. …
Most people don’t know what to do with short interest data. That’s not an insult. That’s just the truth. Take the latest FINRA report, for example. It came out on Wednesday, July 10. It’s impossible to find, and even if…
Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency are not a new asset class. They’re just more technology stocks. Everybody’s wrong about this. And they’ve held themselves back by putting Bitcoin and Crypto on a pedestal. My Personal Evolution I started trading Crypto back in…
Historically, when everybody expects stocks to rise and consumers are also feeling good, it doesn’t bode well for the market. At a certain point, if we’re all bullish, and we’ve all acted upon that belief, who’s left to buy? And…
Charlie Munger once turned to his longtime business partner Warren Buffett and said, “Warren, if people weren’t wrong so often, we wouldn’t be so rich!” Charlie’s message has resonated with me for many years. It’s a big reason why I…
What we like to do is find massive divergences between what investors think should be happening and what’s actually happening. We came into the year looking for a U.S. Dollar rollover, as investors all over the world just assumed the…
There’s a big misconception I’ve noticed among the public, and it’s getting worse. For some reason, people forget CEOs work for shareholders. The job of a CEO is to increase shareholder value. Period. The CEO does not work for employees.…
Something that often defines your approach to markets is how you came up in the business. You meet people who started just before the crash of ’87 who are always looking for another Black Monday. Maybe they came in when…
Everybody’s wrong about tequila. Drinking too much tequila around the Fourth of July in 2016 got me uber-bullish. Let me take you back, to much simpler times, when I didn’t have any children and it was just me and my…
Contrary to popular belief, the market doesn’t move based on fundamentals. Asset prices move based on positioning, or a lack thereof. In other words, we know for a fact that prices are not necessarily driven by the underlying “fair value”…
Have I told you about that time Sean and I got kicked out of the Tokyo Stock Exchange? I’ll save that story for another day. But I will say this: The coolest part about the Tokyo Stock Exchange is not…
