I’ve built an entire framework for approaching the market around the idea that everybody’s wrong. Everybody is wrong about something at all times. This isn’t an occasional thing. It’s constant. That’s the opportunity. That’s where the edge comes from. That’s…
In 2008, I started writing every day just to keep my family and friends in the loop about what I was seeing at work. At that point, I had already earned my CMT designation and had a few years of…
Sector rotation is always happening. That’s the market doing its job. Sometimes it shows up during healthy uptrends. Sometimes it shows up near major tops. The difference is in the direction of that rotation. This is what we track every…
When it comes to technology stocks, the conversation always seems to go in the same direction. Software. Semiconductors. Maybe a little AI sprinkled in. That’s where the spotlight is. But what about the other side of that trade? What about…
Are stocks breaking out into a new multiyear bull market? Or was that the move, and now we’re left with a bunch of failed breakouts and a market that chops investors to pieces all year? That’s the question. And it’s…
Asset prices don’t make their biggest moves because of fundamentals. They move because of positioning. That’s the game. It’s not about earnings. It’s about ownership. Who owns what, how much do they own, and, more importantly, what happens when Everybody’s…
For a while now there have been conspiracy theories floating around about a “dollar debasement.” The idea is that the U.S. dollar is somehow being intentionally destroyed and losing its purchasing power. What those arguments usually ignore is a simple…
As we move into the back half of March, it’s a good time to start thinking about what the spring might look like for stocks. Not just in terms of direction, but in terms of rotation and volatility. We’ve already…
Some lessons you only learn the hard way. This was definitely one of them for me. For years I spent far too much time analyzing every little wiggle in the S&P 500. Every squiggle. Every minor breakout. Every fake breakdown.…
The S&P 500 is less than 3% away from a new all-time closing high. But when you zoom out, the index is sitting at roughly the same level it was five months ago. In other words, the benchmark for U.S.…
Everyone thinks it’s all over for the “Magnificent Seven.” The bull market is finished. The crash is coming. That’s the narrative making the rounds right now. It reminds me of Fred Sanford grabbing his chest and yelling, “This is the…
I spend a lot of time talking about markets. That comes with the territory. It happens every day whether I plan for it or not. Sometimes it’s a conversation with a colleague on the phone or through text. Other times…
