The S&P 500 has closed at new all-time highs for six consecutive months. And yet, the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) refuses to go quietly. Despite this relentless strength in stocks, the VIX remains above 16 – a level that doesn’t…
One of the biggest questions on investors’ minds right now is whether the correction that began in September is finally behind us. As we’ve discussed repeatedly over the past few months, the U.S. stock market has been working through a…
We’re seeing the exact opposite of the “Dollar wrecking ball” narrative they’re always trying to scare you with. And sure, the idea of the U.S. Dollar smashing everything in its path sounds terrifying. It makes for great headlines. But the…
We spend a lot of time talking about the market’s most important stocks and sectors – and for good reason. They matter. They move the needle. But what’s the real answer to the question: Which sector is the most important…
Something funny happened yesterday. Value stocks hit new all-time highs… and growth didn’t. For years, we’ve heard the same lazy take: “It’s just a handful of growth stocks driving this weak market.” But that was never true, and anyone who…
It’s rarely the direction of interest rates that matters most to markets. It’s the rate of change behind that direction. Put simply, stocks prefer a quiet bond market. The lower the volatility in rates, the more comfortable investors tend to…
If you want a real read on market health, you have to look beyond the S&P 500 (SPY) and the Nasdaq (QQQ). There’s a whole world happening outside those two tickers. And if you’re only staring at a couple of…
One of the questions I get most often – and one I think about a lot – is this: What would the market actually have to do for us to get more defensive? We’ve spent most of this cycle looking…
Risk-on assets are rising. Risk-off assets can’t keep up. That’s exactly what you see in healthy bull markets. The S&P 500 High Beta Index just closed at new all-time highs. Nearly half of it is Tech, with big help from…
Nobody wants to own Regional Banks. We can see it in the data. Short interest in the Regional Banks ETF (KRE) is at its highest level ever. And you’re not going to believe this… but I think everybody’s wrong. Every…
The American consumer is a powerful beast. My fundamental friends love reminding me that consumer spending makes up roughly 70% of U.S. GDP. I still don’t know what a GDP is, but 70% of anything sounds like a big deal.…
We call this daily note Everybody’s Wrong for a reason: There’s always a crowd leaning the wrong way. And as investors, our only job is to recognize those dislocations and profit from them. This summer, when small-cap short interest hit…
