One of my favorite things to do is ignore what people are saying and watch what they’re actually doing. Economists can argue. Strategists can debate. TV can spend all day discussing what might happen next. I want to know where…
At TrendLabs, we don’t spend a lot of time worrying about what should happen. We’re interested in what is happening. That’s literally why it’s called “TrendLabs.” Our job is to identify trends, recognize them before everybody else, and then figure…
Thirty years ago, Amos Tversky passed away. One of my favorite quotes of his was simple: “My colleagues, they study artificial intelligence. Me, I study natural stupidity.” It’s a funny line. But the older I get, the more profound it…
For years I’ve been saying that the 60/40 portfolio is really 100. People hear “60/40” and think about a balanced mutual fund or some financial advisor allocating 60% to stocks and 40% to bonds. But that’s not what I’m talking…
Every year, the market teaches you a new vocabulary word. You don’t ask for it. You don’t go looking for it. It just sort of appears one day. And suddenly everybody’s pretending they’ve understood it forever. That’s one of my…
This is my first summer owning a boat. Never had one before, which is funny because I grew up in Miami, and you’d think everybody there owns a boat. My family just wasn’t into boating. We were beach people, pool…
I’ve been trading crypto since 2013. Back then, if you wanted exposure, you had to really want it. There were no Bitcoin ETFs. There were no Ethereum ETFs. There were no leveraged crypto products. There were no publicly traded treasury…
Everybody wants to talk about gold like it’s some brand-new phenomenon. As if markets have never gone completely insane and then immediately destroyed everyone who showed up late to the party. But gold has done this movie before. And the…
When I was a little kid, I used to spend a lot of time with my great-grandmother. We called her Tata. My parents were working, school was out, and somehow I always ended up over there with her. She was…
You can usually tell pretty quickly who’s actually paying attention to this market and who’s just repeating what they heard on TV. Just ask them how many stocks are participating in this bull market. Because if you listened to most…
Everybody walks around with a mental spreadsheet of what they think the market should care about. Wars. Elections. Interest rates. Earnings. Government debt. Oil prices. Inflation. The Fed. Valuations. Headlines. Scandals. CEOs saying dumb things on conference calls. Whatever it…
On May 15, Jerome Powell’s final day as Fed Chair, the bond market gave him one last parting gift. The U.S. 30-year yield closed at its highest level since 2007, finally clearing the late-2023 peak that had capped rates for…
