Everybody spent years telling you rates only go one way. Down. Central banks have your back. Bonds are safe. Duration is your friend. Just sit there and let the math work. Then something funny happened. The Fed finally started cutting…
This is the game. You can sit there and complain that insiders are trading ahead of a tweet. Ahead of an announcement. Ahead of whatever headline you didn’t see coming. Or you can grow up. Because this isn’t anything new.…
Your best players are supposed to lead the way. That’s how winning works. In sports, in markets, anywhere performance actually matters. The stars show up, they produce, and the rest of the team follows. When that’s not happening, you’ve got…
If the Dow Jones Industrial Average is Michael Jordan, the Dow Jones Transportation Average is Scottie Pippen. You don’t get all those banners without both of them. You don’t get dynasties with just one guy putting up numbers. That’s what…
I’ve built an entire framework for approaching the market around the idea that everybody’s wrong. Everybody is wrong about something at all times. This isn’t an occasional thing. It’s constant. That’s the opportunity. That’s where the edge comes from. That’s…
In 2008, I started writing every day just to keep my family and friends in the loop about what I was seeing at work. At that point, I had already earned my CMT designation and had a few years of…
Sector rotation is always happening. That’s the market doing its job. Sometimes it shows up during healthy uptrends. Sometimes it shows up near major tops. The difference is in the direction of that rotation. This is what we track every…
When it comes to technology stocks, the conversation always seems to go in the same direction. Software. Semiconductors. Maybe a little AI sprinkled in. That’s where the spotlight is. But what about the other side of that trade? What about…
Are stocks breaking out into a new multiyear bull market? Or was that the move, and now we’re left with a bunch of failed breakouts and a market that chops investors to pieces all year? That’s the question. And it’s…
Asset prices don’t make their biggest moves because of fundamentals. They move because of positioning. That’s the game. It’s not about earnings. It’s about ownership. Who owns what, how much do they own, and, more importantly, what happens when Everybody’s…
For a while now there have been conspiracy theories floating around about a “dollar debasement.” The idea is that the U.S. dollar is somehow being intentionally destroyed and losing its purchasing power. What those arguments usually ignore is a simple…
As we move into the back half of March, it’s a good time to start thinking about what the spring might look like for stocks. Not just in terms of direction, but in terms of rotation and volatility. We’ve already…
