We spend a lot of time talking about the market’s most important stocks and sectors – and for good reason. They matter. They move the needle. But what’s the real answer to the question: Which sector is the most important…
Something funny happened yesterday. Value stocks hit new all-time highs… and growth didn’t. For years, we’ve heard the same lazy take: “It’s just a handful of growth stocks driving this weak market.” But that was never true, and anyone who…
It’s rarely the direction of interest rates that matters most to markets. It’s the rate of change behind that direction. Put simply, stocks prefer a quiet bond market. The lower the volatility in rates, the more comfortable investors tend to…
If you want a real read on market health, you have to look beyond the S&P 500 (SPY) and the Nasdaq (QQQ). There’s a whole world happening outside those two tickers. And if you’re only staring at a couple of…
One of the questions I get most often – and one I think about a lot – is this: What would the market actually have to do for us to get more defensive? We’ve spent most of this cycle looking…
Risk-on assets are rising. Risk-off assets can’t keep up. That’s exactly what you see in healthy bull markets. The S&P 500 High Beta Index just closed at new all-time highs. Nearly half of it is Tech, with big help from…
Nobody wants to own Regional Banks. We can see it in the data. Short interest in the Regional Banks ETF (KRE) is at its highest level ever. And you’re not going to believe this… but I think everybody’s wrong. Every…
The American consumer is a powerful beast. My fundamental friends love reminding me that consumer spending makes up roughly 70% of U.S. GDP. I still don’t know what a GDP is, but 70% of anything sounds like a big deal.…
We call this daily note Everybody’s Wrong for a reason: There’s always a crowd leaning the wrong way. And as investors, our only job is to recognize those dislocations and profit from them. This summer, when small-cap short interest hit…
The weight of the evidence in small caps keeps pointing in the same direction: higher. The Russell 2000 just posted its third straight monthly close at new all-time highs, and when you break it down sector by sector, the underlying…
As bull markets mature, opportunities don’t disappear — they multiply. But only for the people actually paying attention. Narratives take hold, and humans cling to them long after the market has moved on. They’ll toss out the math just to…
Mark Twain famously said there are three kinds of lies: “Lies, damned lies, and statistics.” It was his way of exposing how easily numbers can be twisted to prop up a weak argument. We see the same thing every day…
