Coinbase (COIN) did everything it was supposed to do.
It built the biggest crypto exchange in America.
It went to Washington, played by the rules, and became the first crypto company to join the S&P 500.
It even holds the Bitcoin for some of the biggest funds in the world, including BlackRock’s IBIT.
If crypto is going to become a major part of the financial system, you’d think Coinbase would be one of the biggest winners.
Apparently, somebody forgot to tell the stock market.
Coinbase has fallen 67% from its 2025 highs. Bitcoin isn’t doing much better, down almost 40% from its own peak.
And now Coinbase is sitting at one of the most important levels on the chart.
It’s Now or Never
I’ve been watching a massive top develop in Coinbase for months. And now we’re getting to the part where buyers really need to show up.
The stock just broke below $143, an important level going back to the April 2025 lows.
If it can’t get back above there, the next area I’m watching is closer to $115.
That’s a problem.
But if buyers can defend this area and start pushing prices higher, we could see one heck of a squeeze:
And I wouldn’t be surprised if the rest of crypto came along for the ride.
This is the line in the sand.
Either buyers show up here, or this thing has a lot more work to do on the downside.
I’m Rooting for Coinbase
I’m not long Coinbase. At least not yet.
But I am rooting for it.
Think about what the world needs to look like if crypto really does become a major part of how we save, invest, and move money.
We’re going to need exchanges. We’re going to need companies to hold these assets.
And we’re going to need businesses that can operate within the American financial system.
Coinbase already does all of that.
So if the company that did everything right can’t get its stock going higher, what does that tell us about the rest of crypto?
That’s why I’m watching this so closely.
I don’t need to guess what Bitcoin does next month, or what Washington announces next week. I just need to watch the price.
If Coinbase can hold this area and turn higher, that could be the beginning of something much bigger for crypto.
But if it can’t, we’ve got a problem.
Because if Coinbase can’t win, who can?