Nobody knows anything.
I know that sounds like a throwaway line. Stick with me.
Last week, I had one of those days that reminds you what this business really is.
I spent last Wednesday afternoon and evening in New York City bouncing around meetings, drinks, parties, and conversations with some very successful people in finance.
Traders, portfolio managers, journalists, advisors, institutional forex guys, hedge fund people. Big names. The kind of people everybody assumes have it all figured out.
They don’t.
The day started early. I got some work done in the morning, put on a couple of trades. Did a live presentation for The Divergence, added to one of our biotech positions. Actually doubled it. Then I went for a run because I needed to clear my head before heading into the city.
Naturally, I left too late.
Traffic into Manhattan was brutal. Completely self-inflicted. I could’ve skipped the run. Could’ve taken meetings from the car. Could’ve left earlier like a responsible adult.
Didn’t do any of those things. So there I am crawling toward the city staring out the window wondering why I continue to underestimate how impossible New York traffic can be.
By the time I finally got there, my friends were already texting me asking where I was.
And that’s when the charts started flying.
Wall Street After Hours
The second I walked in it was immediate.
“JC, what do you think about this setup?”
“Look at this chart.”
“We’re warning clients about euphoria.”
“You think this thing is dangerous?”
Normal Wall Street party conversation.
The funny thing about market people is that no matter where you are or what the occasion is, eventually somebody pulls out a chart. Weddings. Golf courses. Dinners. Vacation.
Doesn’t matter. It always circles back to markets.
At one point, I randomly ran into an old friend I hadn’t seen in years. Total coincidence. That’s New York for you. Biggest city in the country, somehow operates like a small town.
Eventually we made our way to the actual party. And that’s when it really hit me.
The Richest People in the Room Were Still Guessing
The room was packed with exactly the people you’d expect.
Successful fund managers. Advisors overseeing serious money. Financial media people from major publications. Traders from all over the world. Household names. Heavy hitters.
And honestly?
Nobody knew shit.
Everybody had opinions. Strong ones too. Everybody had reasons. Everybody had charts. But certainty? Nobody had that.
Later in the night I ended up having drinks with a few institutional forex traders. Really smart guys. Very successful. The kind of people moving around amounts of money most people can’t even comprehend.
And even those guys will tell you straight to your face they don’t know what’s going to happen next.
That’s the part I think people misunderstand about markets.
The professionals are not professionals because they magically know the future. They’re professionals because they know how to operate without needing to know the future.
That’s a completely different skill.
And hearing that should make people feel better, not worse. Because too many investors assume they’re behind. Like everybody else has some secret information or hidden advantage they don’t have.
They don’t. I spent the day in rooms full of some of the most successful people in finance.
Nobody knows anything.
Confidence Comes From the Work
I think sometimes people mistake confidence for certainty, especially with me.
I know I can come off confident. Maybe even cocky sometimes. But if you actually know me, you know it’s the opposite. The market humbles everybody eventually. I’ve been humbled plenty.
The confidence doesn’t come from thinking I know what happens next.
The confidence comes from knowing I did the work.
I know how much time I spend studying trends and sentiment and positioning and momentum and relative strength and intermarket relationships and risk management.
I know how hard our team works. Frankly, between all of us, it’s an unfair advantage.
That doesn’t guarantee we’ll be right.
It just means when we put on a position, there’s a reason. And when we avoid one, there’s a reason for that too.
That’s all you can really ask for in this business.
Because certainty does not exist here.
Nobody knows anything.
And, honestly, I think that’s comforting.
If you’ve ever sat there feeling like everybody else has some secret edge or some hidden knowledge that you don’t have, they don’t. I spent the day in rooms full of some of the most successful people in finance.
Nobody knows shit.
We’re all just doing the best we can with incomplete information while trying to stay solvent long enough for the probabilities to play out.
That’s the game.
Go get yours.
Stay sharp,
JC Parets, CMT
Founder, TrendLabs