A common question I get is about the turmoil in the Middle East.
And not just this week.
And not just this year.
It’s every year.
My entire career.
When is there no turmoil in the Middle East?
Isn’t this just par for the course?
I don’t mean to be insensitive about what’s happening over there.
That’s not what this is about.
As far as investing goes, making money is all that matters.
Politics are for another conversation.
For another newsletter perhaps.
Not this one.
For traders and investors, we need to just assume the worst is happening out there.
Do I want peace? Yes. Do I want people to be safe and happy? Yes.
But it’s not about me, what I think or what I want.
As far as making money goes, it’s only about reality.
And the reality of the matter is that sh*t is always hitting the fan out there.
So when it comes to thinking about risk management, that’s a part of it.
The “Dumb Money” Reports
One thing to note is that due to the Juneteenth holiday the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) won’t publish the Commitment of Traders (COT) report until Monday, June 23.
The CFTC usually releases the COT report on Fridays.
This is a big one because the most recent report showed asset managers, leveraged funds, and other non-dealer investors had the least amount of net long exposure to stocks in more than a year.
In other words, the “dumb money,” so to speak, has been selling into all this strength in stocks.
That’s indicative of the early stages of a massive uptrend.
We’ll get updates on this data on Monday when the CFTC updates its COT report.
This Week in Everybody’s Wrong
On Monday, we talked about the All Country World Index being at all-time highs.
But a lot of investors think stocks are going down.
Here’s how we exploit the flaws of human behavior and profit in the stock market.
On Tuesday, we showed you data about retail net buying and selling for every stock in the S&P 500 over the past month.
They’ve been selling at the most aggressive rate all year.
Here’s why we need to pay attention to what’s happening around us.
On Wednesday, we caught up on price action for the U.S. Dollar in 2025 – including its huge collapse.
We saw it coming before the beginning of the year, and we were positioned for it.
Here’s what we’re seeing with the Dollar right now and what it means for multiple asset classes.
On Thursday, U.S. markets were closed for Juneteenth, so we turned it over to Senior Analyst Jason Perz for a think-piece on Charlie Munger.
As Jason writes, “The market is the greatest teacher in the world – and the cruelest.”
Here’s why you’re not a trader until you get punched in the face.
On Friday, we talked about bearishness and bullishness and Democrats and Republicans.
Humans already struggle to think and act logically, and when you add politics humans completely lose their minds.
Here’s how we’re cashing in on the irrationality of people who mix partisanship and portfolios.
On Saturday, I shared my experience training for and receiving my Sommelier certification.
Our Top-Down approach to the stock market is a lot like how Master Sommeliers identify wines.
Here’s what blind wine tasting taught me about financial markets.
Have a great Sunday.
I’ll see you Monday morning…
Stay sharp,
JC Parets, CMT
Founder, TrendLabs