By now, the skis are back in the garage.
A few months ago, I was bundled up on the side of a mountain with the kids, carrying boots around like a pack mule, trying not to fall on ice.
Now? Memorial Day weekend is here. The grill is hot. The lake is open. The flags are out. Everybody’s wearing flip flops and pretending tequila is hydration.
It’s a different season. And the market knows it, too.
This time of year always reminds me how ridiculous investors can sound when they pretend markets behave the same way all year long. They don’t.
Human beings don’t even behave the same way all year long.
We eat different foods. We wear different clothes. We spend time in different places.
The kids are playing different sports. The conversations change. The routines change. Everything changes.
So why would markets not change too?
That’s the whole point of seasonality.
It’s not magic. It’s not astrology. It’s just the recognition that human behavior tends to repeat itself during certain times of the year.
And since markets are simply a reflection of human behavior, certain tendencies show up over and over again.
Memorial Day Means Something
In the Northeast, Memorial Day weekend is basically the opening bell for summer.
I checked the math. In 2026, there are 15 weekends between Memorial Day and Labor Day.
Fifteen shots at the lake. Fifteen weekends of burgers, boats, baseball games, beach chairs, sunburns, and people pretending they’re only having “one drink.”
Then Labor Day hits.
The kids go back to school. Football starts to matter again. The leaves change.
Everybody suddenly starts putting pumpkin into things that absolutely do not need pumpkin in them.
Different season. Different behavior.
Markets go through the same thing.
“Sell in May and go away” exists for a reason. Historically, the May through October stretch has been the weakest six-month period of the year for stocks.
Jeff Hirsch has written extensively about it for decades. Ari Wald has shown the tendency in the data. Ryan Detrick has highlighted it repeatedly as well. The stats are real.
But here’s where investors get themselves into trouble. They hear a phrase like “Sell in May” and immediately treat it like a law of physics.
It’s not.
Last year was actually the perfect example. The so-called “worst six months” turned out to be the best worst six months in history.
Stocks absolutely ripped during a period that seasonally is supposed to be weaker.
So no, I’m not telling you to literally sell everything and disappear until Halloween. Markets are far more nuanced than that.
What I am telling you is to understand the environment you’re operating in.
The Midterm Year Mess
This is also the part of the cycle where things can get sloppy.
Historically, midterm years tend to be the weakest years in the four-year presidential cycle.
And when you combine that with the seasonally weaker May through October stretch, you can absolutely get some turbulence.
That’s normal.
But this is where most investors stop looking at the data too early.
Because the really interesting stat comes afterward.
If you go back to 1950 and measure the S&P 500 from the low of the midterm year to the high of the following pre-election year, the average gain is just under 50%.
Think about how ridiculous that is for a second.
The average return from the low this year into the high next year has historically been almost 50%.
That doesn’t mean this exact cycle has to follow the script perfectly.
Markets don’t owe us anything. But it does tell you something important about opportunity. Weakness during these periods has historically created some monster setups later on.
That’s the part people miss because they get too caught up in the scary headlines in the middle of the year.
The season changes again.
Act Like It’s Summer
So here we are.
Memorial Day weekend.
The grill is going. The steaks are cooking. The kids are running around. The lake water is finally warm enough where jumping in doesn’t feel like torture. Everybody’s outside again. The energy shifts.
And markets shift, too.
This isn’t February. This isn’t earnings season in the dead of winter while everybody’s trapped inside watching CNBC in sweatpants.
It’s a different environment now. Volume changes. Participation changes. Leadership changes. Behavior changes.
Seasonality matters because human behavior matters.
There’s a time and a place for everything in markets.
There are periods to press aggressively and periods to stay selective.
There are moments when trends expand effortlessly and moments where things get choppier beneath the surface.
Just understand what season you’re in.
It’s summer now.
Act like it.
This Week in Everybody’s Wrong
On Monday, we talked about how my three-year-old twin boys and I spent our Sunday.
It was a huge success.
Here’s why the biggest space IPO in history might not be.
On Tuesday, I shared some insights after I spent a day with some of the most successful people in finance.
Nobody knows anything.
And, honestly, that’s comforting.
On Wednesday, we joined the Nvidia (NVDA) conversation.
It’s the biggest stock in the world, and everybody’s talking about it.
We’re interested because Jensen Huang knows where the puck is going.
On Thursday, we wondered where one guest at this stock market party had gone.
It’s probably the most important index in the world.
Maybe Papa Dow just went to get more beer.
On Friday, we asked if AI data centers are eating Nashville and the entire world.
My friend Dan Ives was in town, too, touring all the new infrastructure.
He says the market still doesn’t appreciate what’s coming.
On Saturday, Jason Perz took us on another interesting trip, perfect for the middle of a long weekend.
Your mind is a powerful thing.
It can imprison you… and it can free you, too.
Have a great Sunday.
We’ll see you Monday morning…
Stay sharp,
JC Parets, CMT
Founder, TrendLabs